This is from a friend who is deeply involved in the RAM business, he splits his time between SF and China.
The facts are 80% correct but the conclusion is 100% wrong
CXMT is ~8% WW market share for DDR5. They DONT have 64Gb or even 32Gb. They just now have 16 and 24Gb. Sampling 8000 but majority of volumes are 5600 Mbps.
Their fab in Anhui is about 85% occupied so they really can’t grow that much more.
So saying they’re going to flood the market is wrong.
Bit demand is crazy right now. Something like 30% YoY demand growth for only 10% supply growth.
Something even if CXMT expands to all 100% and goes from 16Gb mainstream to 32Gb mainstream you’re barely looking at filling the gap
are you talking sticks because the real hurt point right now I think is people at a machine with 16 and it feeling pretty tight. Being able to get two 16gig sticks so your machine as 32gig is just whats needed to give headroom right now.
The problem is they don’t have the capacity, even if they switched everything to producing their new 16gb DIMM’s (which also isn’t possible) they account for such a small portion of the market that saying they are going to flood anything is incorrect. It wouldn’t even move the needle.
This is from a friend who is deeply involved in the RAM business, he splits his time between SF and China.
The facts are 80% correct but the conclusion is 100% wrong
CXMT is ~8% WW market share for DDR5. They DONT have 64Gb or even 32Gb. They just now have 16 and 24Gb. Sampling 8000 but majority of volumes are 5600 Mbps.
Their fab in Anhui is about 85% occupied so they really can’t grow that much more.
So saying they’re going to flood the market is wrong.
Bit demand is crazy right now. Something like 30% YoY demand growth for only 10% supply growth.
Something even if CXMT expands to all 100% and goes from 16Gb mainstream to 32Gb mainstream you’re barely looking at filling the gap
are you talking sticks because the real hurt point right now I think is people at a machine with 16 and it feeling pretty tight. Being able to get two 16gig sticks so your machine as 32gig is just whats needed to give headroom right now.
The problem is they don’t have the capacity, even if they switched everything to producing their new 16gb DIMM’s (which also isn’t possible) they account for such a small portion of the market that saying they are going to flood anything is incorrect. It wouldn’t even move the needle.
Yeah it will mean nothing unless they do it but we have seen some pretty big ramp ups in industries before and the demand is certainly there.